Have you ever wondered how the sports betting “smart money” became the smart money? Do you wonder what the football betting smart money does differently than the amateurs?
To get an idea how a professional sports handicapper analyzes a game, let’s take a look at the analysis I did for my clients for the Fresno St. vs. Boise St. game:
Fresno St. at Boise St. -23
The line on this game is “only” 23 because of Fresno St. past reputation as a half-decent team. This Fresno St. team is terrible, going 1-6 SU so far this season. More importantly, Boise St. is playing at home, and Boise St. is ranked 14th in the nation for good reason. They are unstoppable on offense, especially playing at home.
Here’s a scary stat for you to think about…
Boise St. is averaging 40 points per game this season, and Fresno St.’s defense is giving up on average a total of 32 points per game. In their last two games, Fresno St. has given up an average of 56 points per game.
Meanwhile, Boise St. has only scored under 36 points once all season. Boise St. has scored over 40 points in 6 games. Boise St. has averaged 46 points per game in their last three home games, and has average beating the spread by a full 7 points in their last three home games, even though they were favored by an average of 20 points per game. At the same time, Fresno St. has averaged about 13 points per game in their last three road games, scoring only 6, 12, and 20 points.
What this adds up to is a game in which you can expect Boise St. to score at least in the mid-40’s, and Fresno St. to score 20 points if they have a great game. In other words, if Boise St. just plays their average game, and Fresno St. plays a great game, the final score should fall near the line of 23. Here’s another way to look at it. Sometimes viewing games as a grid of possible outcomes, it becomes easier to see the high percentage play.
Here’s a table of possible results showing likely scores depending on whether or not each team has a “good” or “bad” game:
Boise St. Fresno St. Possible Final Score
Average Game Average Game 46-14
Bad game Bad game 36-10
Good game Good game 55-26
Bad game Good game 36-26
Good game Bad game 55-10
As you can see, there is only one scenario where Fresno St. has a chance to cover. That’s if they have a good game, and Boise St. has a bad game. All other scenarios point to Boise St. covering the 23 points. I.e., if Boise St. has a good game, Fresno St. has no chance to cover. Likewise, if Fresno St. has a bad game, they have no chance to cover.
Of course the models we use to determine the “possible” scores are proprietary statistical models that use weighted factors. It’s the same type of analysis used by financial traders to calculate probabilities. Keep in mind, we’re only playing probabilities, and even when the odds are in your favor, you can still lose. That’s why it’s important to manage risk by staying disciplined with your bet size.
Bottom line, Boise St. is likely to run up the score tonight and win going away, 52-17.
The actual final score was Boise St. 45, Fresno St. 21. Boise St. covered the spread by 1 point. However, what you don’t realize by just seeing the score is that Fresno St. was only able to make it close by returning an interception for a touchdown.
In other words, the game analysis was exactly right. Fresno St. had a “good” game and still couldn’t cover the 23 point spread. By repeating this type of analysis over and over, somebody serious about can make big money!
David James is one of the world’s foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at